Why elections this year?

Much happened since the turn of the year - a new president was inaugurated in the USA, the global economy has not recovered despite the trillions of dollars that have been poured into it, and Singaporeans are gearing up for the biggest challenge to their living standards in recent memory.

Many people have already been laid off and the rate of retrenchments will only accelerate in the coming months. Companies are looking at ways to rein in costs, and are in talks with the government on the measures that they need to help them achieve this. The government itself, which brought the budget forward by a month to ensure that money begins to reach those in need sooner, is looking at additional measures to apply a much-needed balm for the pain that will get worse in the coming months.

Amid all of this, there is talk that Singapore could be gearing up for elections. Earlier this month, the Elections Department said that it had made changes to the boundaries of polling districts and that it would update the electoral register by 30 April.

Everyone should simply ignore the denials in the newspapers. These are clear indications that some people at the very top are entertaining thoughts of early elections, which the government can call any time before November 2011.

Historically, the People’s Action Party government has gone to the people during economic slowdowns to get a fresh mandate to steer the country through the hard times, and to use uncertainty to push forward its message that it is the best option for the country. Yet, there does not appear to be a compelling reason this time.

The elections were in May 2006, which means that the government would have been in power for just over three years if the polls were held this year. The PAP can wait until November 2011, plenty of time to steer the country through the crisis. In addition, given the economic uncertainty, it makes more sense to wait to see if its measures will be enough and that could take several months.

Perhaps, the one case for early elections is that the PAP fears that the slowdown will worsen and last well into 2010. In that case, it may make sense to hold elections before the bitterness really sets in among the population and lower the PAP’s risk of losing more than the two seats that are now in opposition hands. Even then, the question is if the PAP will improve on the 66.6% of the popular vote that it won in 2006, rather than an actual change in government.

Political change remains a distant hope for Singaporeans. We do not have a Barack Obama-esque movement that offers a real alternative to the PAP’s almost 50-year hold on power. The opposition parties are still not united and the one man who they could have coalesced around – J.B. Jeyaretnam – died late last year. Historically, Singaporeans are risk-averse when it comes to politics and will not want to rock the boat, especially in a time of uncertainty.

At the end of the day, early elections are just plain unnecessary at this time. The government has a mandate that is less than three years old, it is trying to deal with the issues at hand, and it is better for the PAP and all Singaporeans to focus on getting through this economic crisis instead of being distracted by polls. In other words, this is a moment that requires all hands on deck without the petty politicking that comes with election campaign.

And personally, I would rather judge this government on how it handled this economic crisis after everything has played out, rather than hazard a guess on how it is handling it while we are in the early or middle stages of the slowdown.

That, though, may just be the reason the PAP needs to go for an early election. Watch this space in the coming months.